Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists3
- Jared McCannPoints3
CanucksScoring summary
- P316:24Adam Larsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (5), Vince Dunn (26)5–0
- P38:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (37)4–0
- P216:00Shane Wright Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (36), Vince Dunn (25)3–0
- P29:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (24), Jared McCann (35)2–0
- P116:42Mikey Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:42Mikey Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 0 VAN · SEA 44% → 61% +17SEA 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P29:49Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (24), Jared McCann (35)SEA 2 – 0 VAN · SEA 65% → 82% +17SEA 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P216:00Shane Wright Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (36), Vince Dunn (25)SEA 3 – 0 VAN · SEA 85% → 95% +10SEA 85% → 95%+10 pts
- P38:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (37)SEA 4 – 0 VAN · SEA >99% → >99% +1SEA >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:24Adam Larsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (5), Vince Dunn (26)SEA 5 – 0 VAN · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 57%
- ML SEA +125 / VAN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 60.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -133
- SEA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +77 Elo | VAN 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3214–22 | Road vs home | 15–2030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.