Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Nils HoglanderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:46Victor Olofsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (18), Alex Pietrangelo (29)3–2
- P28:03Aatu Raty Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (25), Kiefer Sherwood (20)2–2
- P113:15Nicolas Roy Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (14), Keegan Kolesar (16)2–1
- P18:36Ivan Barbashev Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (48)1–1
- P14:46Nils Hoglander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (21), Brock Boeser (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Nils Hoglander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (21), Brock Boeser (24)VGK 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 38% → 53% +15VAN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P18:36Ivan Barbashev Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (48)VGK 1 – 1 VAN · VGK 46% → 61% +16VGK 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P113:15Nicolas Roy Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (14), Keegan Kolesar (16)VGK 2 – 1 VAN · VGK 61% → 76% +15VGK 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P28:03Aatu Raty Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (25), Kiefer Sherwood (20)VGK 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 23% → 41% +18VAN 23% → 41%+18 pts
- P316:46Victor Olofsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (18), Alex Pietrangelo (29)VGK 3 – 2 VAN · VGK 53% → 95% +42VGK 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 62%
- ML VGK -185 / VAN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -166
- VAN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 2.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −9 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +6 Elo | VGK 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 49.0%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 16–2130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–33 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–2 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.