Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Reilly SmithGoals2
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints2
Flames- Joel HanleyGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Joel HanleyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:31Reilly Smith Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (47), Brett Howden (15)3–2
- P30:43Matt Coronato Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14)2–2
- P219:52Joel Hanley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (29), Blake Coleman (20)2–1
- P29:57Reilly Smith Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (46), Victor Olofsson (13)2–0
- P118:39Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (45), Brandon Saad (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:39Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (45), Brandon Saad (15)VGK 1 – 0 CGY · VGK 57% → 73% +16VGK 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P29:57Reilly Smith Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (46), Victor Olofsson (13)VGK 2 – 0 CGY · VGK 74% → 88% +13VGK 74% → 88%+13 pts
- P219:52Joel Hanley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (29), Blake Coleman (20)VGK 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 8% → 23% +14CGY 8% → 23%+14 pts
- P30:43Matt Coronato Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14)VGK 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 22% → 45% +23CGY 22% → 45%+23 pts
- OT4:31Reilly Smith Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (47), Brett Howden (15)VGK 3 – 2 CGY · VGK 51% → >99% +49VGK 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -150 / CGY +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -138
- CGY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −39 | +4 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.98 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +9 Elo | CGY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 20–1717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–32 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40 | 30–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–3 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.