Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Olen ZellwegerGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Olen ZellwegerPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:17Blake Coleman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (14), Rasmus Andersson (19)1–4
- P215:19Kevin Rooney Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Ryan Lomberg (9)1–3
- P210:25Blake Coleman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P18:01Olen Zellweger Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (30), Troy Terry (33)1–1
- P10:16Nazem Kadri Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (13), MacKenzie Weegar (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:16Nazem Kadri Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (13), MacKenzie Weegar (36)ANA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 60% → 73% +13CGY 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P18:01Olen Zellweger Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (30), Troy Terry (33)ANA 1 – 1 CGY · ANA 27% → 41% +14ANA 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P210:25Blake Coleman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 57% → 76% +19CGY 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P215:19Kevin Rooney Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Ryan Lomberg (9)ANA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 77% → 90% +14CGY 77% → 90%+14 pts
- P31:17Blake Coleman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (14), Rasmus Andersson (19)ANA 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 93% → 98% +6CGY 93% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 60%
- ML ANA +140 / CGY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CGY: Elo 58.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CGY -149
- ANA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +61 Elo | CGY 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3214–22 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–23 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 47–20 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–44 | 30–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–4 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.