San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Marc-Edouard VlasicPoints1
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists3
- Mason McTavishPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P316:46Alexander Wennberg Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (38)3–3
- P34:08Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (4)2–3
- P119:01Sam Colangelo Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (28), Radko Gudas (14)1–3
- P18:13Jackson LaCombe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (18), Mason McTavish (27)1–2
- P15:28Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (10), Ty Dellandrea (7)1–1
- P12:04Trevor Zegras Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Sam Colangelo (2), Mason McTavish (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:04Trevor Zegras Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Sam Colangelo (2), Mason McTavish (26)SJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 62% → 75% +13ANA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P15:28Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (10), Ty Dellandrea (7)SJ 1 – 1 ANA · SJ 25% → 38% +13SJ 25% → 38%+13 pts
- P18:13Jackson LaCombe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (18), Mason McTavish (27)SJ 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 61% → 75% +14ANA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P34:08Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (4)SJ 2 – 3 ANA · SJ 6% → 19% +13SJ 6% → 19%+13 pts
- P316:46Alexander Wennberg Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (38)SJ 3 – 3 ANA · SJ 5% → 47% +42SJ 5% → 47%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 62%
- ML SJ +155 / ANA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 66.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | 0 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +119 Elo | ANA 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.1% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–28 | Road vs home | 18–1923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–30 | 51–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 42–30 | 47–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 29–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–5 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.