Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:33Max Sasson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P22:49Trevor Zegras Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (15), Mason McTavish (29)2–5
- P114:10Dakota Joshua Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (19), Marcus Pettersson (23)1–5
- P113:25Conor Garland Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (56), Brock Boeser (23)1–4
- P111:32Brock Boeser Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (55), Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3)1–3
- P110:46Filip Hronek Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (16)1–2
- P19:40Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (1), Derek Forbort (8)1–1
- P11:21Troy Terry Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (14), Frank Vatrano (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:21Troy Terry Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (14), Frank Vatrano (22)ANA 1 – 0 VAN · ANA 39% → 54% +15ANA 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P19:40Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (1), Derek Forbort (8)ANA 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 44% → 60% +16VAN 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P110:46Filip Hronek Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (16)ANA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 60% → 74% +14VAN 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P111:32Brock Boeser Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (55), Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3)ANA 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 74% → 86% +11VAN 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P113:25Conor Garland Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (56), Brock Boeser (23)ANA 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 86% → 93% +7VAN 86% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 61%
- ML ANA +145 / VAN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- VAN: Elo 61.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- VAN -156
- ANA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +84 Elo | VAN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 15–2130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–24 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 47–21 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–45 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.