Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:58Marco Rossi Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (30), Matt Boldy (41)2–3
- P313:05Thomas Harley Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (25), Matt Duchene (50)2–2
- P35:00Marcus Foligno Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (34), Matt Boldy (40)1–2
- P33:08Matt Boldy Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (14), Jared Spurgeon (24)1–1
- P15:51Jason Robertson Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53), Esa Lindell (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Jason Robertson Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53), Esa Lindell (20)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P33:08Matt Boldy Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (14), Jared Spurgeon (24)DAL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 23% → 48% +25MIN 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P35:00Marcus Foligno Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (34), Matt Boldy (40)DAL 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 48% → 75% +27MIN 48% → 75%+27 pts
- P313:05Thomas Harley Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (25), Matt Duchene (50)DAL 2 – 2 MIN · DAL 15% → 51% +37DAL 15% → 51%+37 pts
- OT0:58Marco Rossi Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (30), Matt Boldy (41)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 49% → 92% +43MIN 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +36 Elo | DAL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 47.6%28th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–39 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.