Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Marco KasperPoints2
Lightning- Gage GoncalvesGoals2
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Gage GoncalvesPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:22Marco Kasper Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P312:59Marco Kasper Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (31), Patrick Kane (36)3–3
- P31:38Gage Goncalves Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (52), Anthony Cirelli (29)2–3
- P217:52Gage Goncalves Goal (7) Deflected, assists: none2–2
- P216:37Tyler Motte Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (5), William Lagesson (1)2–1
- P24:07Patrick Kane Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:01Anthony Cirelli Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (51), Darren Raddysh (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:37Tyler Motte Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (5), William Lagesson (1)DET 2 – 1 TB · DET 35% → 58% +23DET 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P217:52Gage Goncalves Goal (7) Deflected, assists: noneDET 2 – 2 TB · TB 41% → 65% +24TB 41% → 65%+24 pts
- P31:38Gage Goncalves Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (52), Anthony Cirelli (29)DET 2 – 3 TB · TB 63% → 84% +21TB 63% → 84%+21 pts
- P312:59Marco Kasper Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (31), Patrick Kane (36)DET 3 – 3 TB · DET 10% → 42% +32DET 10% → 42%+32 pts
- OT3:22Marco Kasper Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 4 – 3 TB · DET 46% → 98% +52DET 46% → 98%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 73%
- ML DET +260 / TB -325
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TB: Elo 70.3%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -275
- DET +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +10 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +150 Elo | TB 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 73.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 27–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–34 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 31–27 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.