Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Uvis BalinskisAssists2
- Uvis BalinskisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:03Aleksander Barkov Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (25), Sam Reinhart (42)1–4
- P216:21Brad Marchand Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (13), Eetu Luostarinen (15)1–3
- P28:46Mackie Samoskevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (19), Uvis Balinskis (12)1–2
- P22:58Evan Rodrigues Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (14), Gustav Forsling (18)1–1
- P16:13Alex DeBrincat Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (37), Ben Chiarot (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:13Alex DeBrincat Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (37), Ben Chiarot (9)DET 1 – 0 FLA · DET 36% → 51% +15DET 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P22:58Evan Rodrigues Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (14), Gustav Forsling (18)DET 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 44% → 62% +18FLA 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P28:46Mackie Samoskevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (19), Uvis Balinskis (12)DET 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 61% → 78% +17FLA 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P216:21Brad Marchand Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (13), Eetu Luostarinen (15)DET 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 80% → 92% +12FLA 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P314:03Aleksander Barkov Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (25), Sam Reinhart (42)DET 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +1FLA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 65%
- ML DET +175 / FLA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 64.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -186
- DET +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +12 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +105 Elo | FLA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 68.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 24–138th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–33 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.