Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints3
Stars- Brendan SmithGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:32Nick Schmaltz Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (25), Dylan Guenther (32)5–3
- P218:53Jason Robertson Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (9), Mikko Rantanen (55)4–3
- P218:06Josh Doan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (14), Logan Cooley (38)4–2
- P27:04Logan Cooley Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Määttä (15)3–2
- P21:21Sean Durzi Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (37), Jack McBain (13)2–2
- P20:32Brendan Smith Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (11), Sam Steel (18)1–2
- P18:11Barrett Hayton Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (37), Dylan Guenther (31)1–1
- P12:48Wyatt Johnston Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (38), Mikko Rantanen (54)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:32Brendan Smith Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (11), Sam Steel (18)UTAH 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 53% → 70% +17DAL 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P21:21Sean Durzi Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (37), Jack McBain (13)UTAH 2 – 2 DAL · UTAH 30% → 47% +17UTAH 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P27:04Logan Cooley Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Määttä (15)UTAH 3 – 2 DAL · UTAH 48% → 67% +19UTAH 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P218:53Jason Robertson Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (9), Mikko Rantanen (55)UTAH 4 – 3 DAL · DAL 12% → 29% +17DAL 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P35:32Nick Schmaltz Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (25), Dylan Guenther (32)UTAH 5 – 3 DAL · UTAH 76% → 93% +17UTAH 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML UTAH +105 / DAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 65.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.2 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +112 Elo | DAL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.3%3rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 14th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 28–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–42 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.