Nashville Predators at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Utah HC- Nick BjugstadGoals1
- Nick DeSimoneAssists1
- Nick BjugstadPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Filip Forsberg Goal Backhand1–0
- P35:42Dylan Guenther Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (36), Clayton Keller (58)3–3
- P33:17Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (18)3–2
- P31:19Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (22), Steven Stamkos (25)2–2
- P217:21Nick Blankenburg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (34), Ryan O'Reilly (29)1–2
- P213:54Josh Doan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (12), Nick DeSimone (5)0–2
- P24:49Nick Bjugstad Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:49Nick Bjugstad Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (14)NSH 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 60% → 77% +17UTAH 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P217:21Nick Blankenburg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (34), Ryan O'Reilly (29)NSH 1 – 2 UTAH · NSH 8% → 21% +13NSH 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P31:19Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (22), Steven Stamkos (25)NSH 2 – 2 UTAH · NSH 20% → 43% +23NSH 20% → 43%+23 pts
- P33:17Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (18)NSH 3 – 2 UTAH · NSH 43% → 70% +27NSH 43% → 70%+27 pts
- P35:42Dylan Guenther Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (36), Clayton Keller (58)NSH 3 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 56% +29UTAH 28% → 56%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 63%
- ML NSH +160 / UTAH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- UTAH: Elo 61.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -170
- NSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.4 – 3.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +79 Elo | UTAH 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 30th of 329–30 | Road vs home | 18–2227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–47 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–48 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.