Seattle Kraken at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Utah HC- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists3
- Mikhail SergachevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P30:23Jared McCann Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (26), Vince Dunn (27)1–7
- P218:07Michael Carcone Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (21), Kevin Stenlund (13)0–7
- P216:05Nick Schmaltz Goal (18) Poke, assists: Dylan Guenther (30), Mikhail Sergachev (36)0–6
- P211:15Logan Cooley Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (29), Clayton Keller (57)0–5
- P20:16Lawson Crouse Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none0–4
- P116:28Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (12), Logan Cooley (35)0–3
- P112:54Clayton Keller Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (35), Dylan Guenther (28)0–2
- P12:44Mikhail Sergachev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (12), Sean Durzi (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Mikhail Sergachev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (12), Sean Durzi (7)SEA 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 79% +12UTAH 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P112:54Clayton Keller Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (35), Dylan Guenther (28)SEA 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 79% → 89% +10UTAH 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P116:28Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (12), Logan Cooley (35)SEA 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 89% → 95% +6UTAH 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P20:16Lawson Crouse Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 96% → 98% +3UTAH 96% → 98%+3 pts
- P211:15Logan Cooley Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (29), Clayton Keller (57)SEA 0 – 5 UTAH · UTAH >99% → >99% +1UTAH >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 67%
- ML SEA +195 / UTAH -230
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 60.2%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -206
- SEA +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 3.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +72 Elo | UTAH 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–22 | Road vs home | 17–2228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–37 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.