Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals2
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints3
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Will SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:07Jared McCann Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (24), Kaapo Kakko (28)5–1
- P211:36Jaden Schwartz Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P27:39Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P114:18Will Smith Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (22), Macklin Celebrini (34)2–1
- P19:26Andre Burakovsky Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (20), Jared McCann (38)2–0
- P15:46Jared McCann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (25), Josh Mahura (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:46Jared McCann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (25), Josh Mahura (9)SEA 1 – 0 SJ · SEA 59% → 73% +14SEA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P19:26Andre Burakovsky Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (20), Jared McCann (38)SEA 2 – 0 SJ · SEA 73% → 85% +11SEA 73% → 85%+11 pts
- P114:18Will Smith Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (22), Macklin Celebrini (34)SEA 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 15% → 26% +12SJ 15% → 26%+12 pts
- P27:39Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 1 SJ · SEA 75% → 88% +13SEA 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P211:36Jaden Schwartz Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: noneSEA 4 – 1 SJ · SEA 89% → 96% +7SEA 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +75 Elo | SEA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 46.1%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 12–2632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–37 | 45–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.