Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists2
- Mario FerraroPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:57Jeff Skinner Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (49), Mattias Janmark (16)3–2
- P28:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (12), Macklin Celebrini (33)2–2
- P22:59Viktor Arvidsson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (54), Evan Bouchard (48)2–1
- P18:10Jack Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (24), Mario Ferraro (11)1–1
- P16:22Connor Brown Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (12), Jake Walman (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:22Connor Brown Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (12), Jake Walman (32)EDM 1 – 0 SJ · EDM 70% → 82% +12EDM 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P18:10Jack Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (24), Mario Ferraro (11)EDM 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 18% → 30% +12SJ 18% → 30%+12 pts
- P22:59Viktor Arvidsson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (54), Evan Bouchard (48)EDM 2 – 1 SJ · EDM 67% → 81% +15EDM 67% → 81%+15 pts
- P28:48Tyler Toffoli Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (12), Macklin Celebrini (33)EDM 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 18% → 35% +16SJ 18% → 35%+16 pts
- P214:57Jeff Skinner Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (49), Mattias Janmark (16)EDM 3 – 2 SJ · EDM 64% → 82% +18EDM 64% → 82%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 71%
- ML EDM -280 / SJ +230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 71.4%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -243
- SJ +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.9 – 2.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −10 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SJ: Georgi Romanov: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +159 Elo | EDM 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 46.1%31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 12–2532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–47 | 44–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–45 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.