Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints1
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P119:29Brandon Montour Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (14), Chandler Stephenson (38)2–1
- P118:35Matty Beniers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (11), Kaapo Kakko (29)1–1
- P11:48Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Kyle Burroughs (3), Alex Laferriere (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:48Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Kyle Burroughs (3), Alex Laferriere (21)SEA 0 – 1 LA · LA 69% → 80% +12LA 69% → 80%+12 pts
- P118:35Matty Beniers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (11), Kaapo Kakko (29)SEA 1 – 1 LA · SEA 20% → 34% +14SEA 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P119:29Brandon Montour Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (14), Chandler Stephenson (38)SEA 2 – 1 LA · SEA 34% → 52% +17SEA 34% → 52%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 69%
- ML SEA +210 / LA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- LA: Elo 65.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -221
- SEA +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +108 Elo | LA 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 29–81st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–37 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 30–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.