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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Away

Oilers

44-27-5

0–3

at

Home

Kings

44-23-9

EDM 34%LA 66%

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crypto.com Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3LA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers
    Kings

    Scoring summary

    • P317:03Trevor Lewis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
    • P216:08Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (31), Drew Doughty (13)0–2
    • P29:20Kevin Fiala Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (20), Jordan Spence (22)0–1

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P29:20Kevin Fiala Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (20), Jordan Spence (22)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 61% → 79% +17
    2. P216:08Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (31), Drew Doughty (13)EDM 0 – 2 LA · LA 80% → 92% +12
    3. P317:03Trevor Lewis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 3 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Kings 66%

    SolidHit
    EDM 34%LA 66%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    LA 66%
    ML EDM +180 / LA -215
    Pre-line forecast
    LA 57%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    LA 54%
    Ratings vs. market
    −12.1 pts
    LA: Elo 53.5%, market 65.6%
    Fair odds
    LA -191
    EDM +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    EDM 2.3 – 3.2 LA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorEDMLAWhy
    Team rating15541539Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+2+6EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsLA +25 EloLA 53.5%
    Market-implied ratingsLA 57.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastLA 56.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastLA 65.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
    EDMStatLA
    11th of 323.2Goals scored3.018th of 32
    14th of 322.9Goals allowed2.52nd of 32
    12th of 32+0.3Margin+0.58th of 32
    3rd of 3254.1%Shot share52.4%6th of 32
    22nd of 3289.6%Save percentage90.8%8th of 32
    3rd of 327–3Last 107–33rd of 32
    6th of 3221–16Road vs home28–81st of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    OilersKings
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonEDMLA
    Puck line27–4837–38
    Last 105–57–3
    Favorite18–4620–27
    Underdog9–217–11
    Overs–unders34–4130–45
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    EDM 8–3 LA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.