New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints3
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:30Brian Dumoulin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (17), Timo Meier (27)5–4
- P35:08Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Lysell (2), Nikita Zadorov (18)4–4
- P216:53John Farinacci Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (6)4–3
- P213:37Dawson Mercer Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Nico Hischier (34), Luke Hughes (37)4–2
- P24:37Simon Nemec Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc McLaughlin (1)3–2
- P24:07Stefan Noesen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (33), Timo Meier (26)2–2
- P20:29David Pastrnak Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (30)1–2
- P18:43Morgan Geekie Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (63), Nikita Zadorov (17)1–1
- P17:25Timo Meier Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (14), Luke Hughes (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:29David Pastrnak Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (30)NJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 44% → 62% +18BOS 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P24:07Stefan Noesen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (33), Timo Meier (26)NJ 2 – 2 BOS · NJ 37% → 56% +19NJ 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P24:37Simon Nemec Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc McLaughlin (1)NJ 3 – 2 BOS · NJ 55% → 73% +18NJ 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P35:08Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Lysell (2), Nikita Zadorov (18)NJ 4 – 4 BOS · BOS 21% → 46% +26BOS 21% → 46%+26 pts
- OT1:30Brian Dumoulin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (17), Timo Meier (27)NJ 5 – 4 BOS · NJ 52% → 94% +42NJ 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML NJ -145 / BOS +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −1 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.1%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 8th of 3221–18 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–48 | 37–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 31–49 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.