Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Penguins- Philip TomasinoAssists1
- Philip TomasinoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:30Jakub Lauko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (33), Nikita Zadorov (16)4–1
- P219:44Rickard Rakell Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (12), Ville Koivunen (5)3–1
- P211:56Morgan Geekie Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (62), Elias Lindholm (29)3–0
- P28:52Fabian Lysell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (32), Marat Khusnutdinov (7)2–0
- P119:57Elias Lindholm Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Henri Jokiharju (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:57Elias Lindholm Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Henri Jokiharju (7)BOS 1 – 0 PIT · BOS 42% → 60% +18BOS 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P28:52Fabian Lysell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (32), Marat Khusnutdinov (7)BOS 2 – 0 PIT · BOS 63% → 80% +17BOS 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P211:56Morgan Geekie Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (62), Elias Lindholm (29)BOS 3 – 0 PIT · BOS 81% → 92% +11BOS 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P219:44Rickard Rakell Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (12), Ville Koivunen (5)BOS 3 – 1 PIT · PIT 4% → 13% +9PIT 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P317:30Jakub Lauko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (33), Nikita Zadorov (16)BOS 4 – 1 PIT · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML BOS +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +45 Elo | PIT 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 28th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.4%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 29th of 3212–28 | Road vs home | 20–1921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–44 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–39 | 44–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.