Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Scoring summary
- 2OT2:36Simon Nemec Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P312:20Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1)2–2
- P36:11Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)1–2
- P31:18Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jesper Bratt (2)0–2
- P116:11Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (1), Ondrej Palat (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:11Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (1), Ondrej Palat (1)CAR 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 42% → 58% +17NJ 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P31:18Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jesper Bratt (2)CAR 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 70% → 88% +18NJ 70% → 88%+18 pts
- P36:11Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)CAR 1 – 2 NJ · CAR 8% → 26% +18CAR 8% → 26%+18 pts
- P312:20Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1)CAR 2 – 2 NJ · CAR 18% → 54% +36CAR 18% → 54%+36 pts
- 2OT2:36Simon Nemec Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 48% → 96% +48NJ 48% → 96%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML CAR -165 / NJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -149
- NJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +19 Elo | CAR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 18–2227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–45 | 32–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–47 | 33–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 7–2 NJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.