New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists2
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- 2OT4:17Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (3), Seth Jarvis (3)4–5
- P211:27Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)4–4
- P27:26Nico Hischier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (1), Stefan Noesen (1)4–3
- P25:40Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (2), Sebastian Aho (5)3–3
- P24:01Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1)3–2
- P21:46Taylor Hall Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Jaccob Slavin (2)3–1
- P19:55Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (1), Dougie Hamilton (2)3–0
- P15:31Timo Meier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (3)2–0
- P13:46Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Brett Pesce (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:01Jackson Blake Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1)NJ 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 30% → 48% +18CAR 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P25:40Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (2), Sebastian Aho (5)NJ 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 47% → 66% +19CAR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P27:26Nico Hischier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (1), Stefan Noesen (1)NJ 4 – 3 CAR · NJ 34% → 54% +19NJ 34% → 54%+19 pts
- P211:27Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)NJ 4 – 4 CAR · CAR 44% → 65% +21CAR 44% → 65%+21 pts
- 2OT4:17Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (3), Seth Jarvis (3)NJ 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +48CAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML NJ +230 / CAR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.1%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -243
- NJ +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +86 Elo | CAR 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–53 | 40–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 37–41 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–52 | 38–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–8 CAR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 27CAR 5 @ NJ 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 63%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 2 @ NJ 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 22NJ 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 20NJ 1 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 28NJ 2 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 27CAR 2 @ NJ 4Picked NJ 55%Hit
- Nov 21CAR 2 @ NJ 4Picked NJ 51%Hit
- Oct 15NJ 2 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 60%Hit