New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Hudson FaschingGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Hudson FaschingPoints1
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:37Adam Fantilli Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (20)1–6
- P314:48Hudson Fasching Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (10)1–5
- P217:27Zach Werenski Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (38), Kirill Marchenko (43)0–5
- P215:14Sean Kuraly Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (12), Erik Gudbranson (4)0–4
- P210:09Dmitri Voronkov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (59), Cole Sillinger (22)0–3
- P27:43Dante Fabbro Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (4)0–2
- P22:21Cole Sillinger Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:21Cole Sillinger Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 61% → 77% +16CBJ 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P27:43Dante Fabbro Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (4)NYI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 77% → 89% +12CBJ 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P210:09Dmitri Voronkov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (59), Cole Sillinger (22)NYI 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 90% → 96% +6CBJ 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P215:14Sean Kuraly Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (12), Erik Gudbranson (4)NYI 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 97% → >99% +2CBJ 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P217:27Zach Werenski Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (38), Kirill Marchenko (43)NYI 0 – 5 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 64%
- ML NYI +165 / CBJ -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 63.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -175
- NYI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +18 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +93 Elo | CBJ 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–43 | 48–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 43–38 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.