Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:48Dmitri Voronkov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P31:57Adam Fantilli Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (33), James van Riemsdyk (19)3–1
- P24:39Adam Fantilli Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P114:36Zach Werenski Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (25), Sean Monahan (35)1–1
- P11:10Alex Ovechkin Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (52)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:10Alex Ovechkin Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (52)CBJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 61% → 74% +13WSH 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P114:36Zach Werenski Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (25), Sean Monahan (35)CBJ 1 – 1 WSH · CBJ 26% → 41% +15CBJ 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P24:39Adam Fantilli Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 1 WSH · CBJ 42% → 61% +19CBJ 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P31:57Adam Fantilli Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (33), James van Riemsdyk (19)CBJ 3 – 1 WSH · CBJ 70% → 88% +18CBJ 70% → 88%+18 pts
- P315:48Dmitri Voronkov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 4 – 1 WSH · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML CBJ +145 / WSH -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −7 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +83 Elo | WSH 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3212–27 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–33 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 45–34 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–5 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.