Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- James van RiemsdykPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:41James van Riemsdyk Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (14)0–7
- P25:14Cole Sillinger Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (24)0–6
- P24:37Sean Monahan Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (41)0–5
- P22:01Adam Fantilli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (9)0–4
- P119:24Adam Fantilli Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (32), James van Riemsdyk (18)0–3
- P14:45Kent Johnson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (17)0–2
- P11:00Zach Werenski Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (34), Dante Fabbro (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Zach Werenski Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (34), Dante Fabbro (17)WSH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 67% +14CBJ 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P14:45Kent Johnson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (17)WSH 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 80% +12CBJ 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P119:24Adam Fantilli Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (32), James van Riemsdyk (18)WSH 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 83% → 92% +9CBJ 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P22:01Adam Fantilli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (9)WSH 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 93% → 97% +5CBJ 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P24:37Sean Monahan Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (41)WSH 0 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 98% → >99% +2CBJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 53%
- ML WSH +105 / CBJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CBJ: Elo 46.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +3 | WSH: Hunter Shepard: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +23 Elo | WSH 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 1st of 3224–14 | Road vs home | 24–1513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–33 | 45–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 25–8 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–0 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.