Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:42Boone Jenner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (40), Sean Monahan (33)2–3
- P34:00Zach Aston-Reese Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (3)2–2
- P119:51James van Riemsdyk Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (31), Zach Werenski (56)2–1
- P114:39Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (18), Jiri Kulich (9)2–0
- P111:54JJ Peterka Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (31), Rasmus Dahlin (48)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:54JJ Peterka Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (31), Rasmus Dahlin (48)BUF 1 – 0 CBJ · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:39Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (18), Jiri Kulich (9)BUF 2 – 0 CBJ · BUF 62% → 77% +15BUF 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P119:51James van Riemsdyk Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (31), Zach Werenski (56)BUF 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 22% → 37% +15CBJ 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P34:00Zach Aston-Reese Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (3)BUF 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 26% → 53% +27CBJ 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P36:42Boone Jenner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (40), Sean Monahan (33)BUF 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 80% +27CBJ 52% → 80%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 55%
- ML BUF +115 / CBJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +8 Elo | CBJ 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 25th of 3213–24 | Road vs home | 23–1513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–36 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 46–31 | 44–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.