Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dante FabbroGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints2
FlyersScoring summary
- P313:26Adam Fantilli Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (42), Ivan Provorov (26)3–0
- P217:01Kent Johnson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (37), Zach Werenski (58)2–0
- P22:32Dante Fabbro Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (57), Sean Monahan (36)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:32Dante Fabbro Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (57), Sean Monahan (36)CBJ 1 – 0 PHI · CBJ 57% → 73% +17CBJ 57% → 73%+17 pts
- P217:01Kent Johnson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (37), Zach Werenski (58)CBJ 2 – 0 PHI · CBJ 76% → 90% +14CBJ 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P313:26Adam Fantilli Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (42), Ivan Provorov (26)CBJ 3 – 0 PHI · CBJ 99% → >99% +1CBJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 58%
- ML CBJ -155 / PHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 51.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +2 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +13 Elo | CBJ 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 25th of 3213–27 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–33 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.