New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Connor BrownPoints2
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghGoals1
- Max CrozierAssists2
- Max CrozierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:17Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1), Gage Goncalves (1)5–3
- P36:29Connor Brown Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (2), Simon Nemec (1)5–2
- P34:48Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P217:23Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Max Crozier (2)3–2
- P27:31Yanni Gourde Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (3), Max Crozier (1)3–1
- P113:48Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (1), Luke Hughes (4)3–0
- P110:17Connor Brown Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (1), Luke Hughes (3)2–0
- P18:30Timo Meier Goal (1) Poke, assists: Nico Hischier (1), Dawson Mercer (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Timo Meier Goal (1) Poke, assists: Nico Hischier (1), Dawson Mercer (1)NJ 1 – 0 TB · NJ 43% → 58% +16NJ 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P110:17Connor Brown Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (1), Luke Hughes (3)NJ 2 – 0 TB · NJ 59% → 73% +15NJ 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P113:48Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (1), Luke Hughes (4)NJ 3 – 0 TB · NJ 74% → 86% +11NJ 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P217:23Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Max Crozier (2)NJ 3 – 2 TB · TB 14% → 32% +18TB 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P34:48Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 4 – 2 TB · NJ 73% → 91% +18NJ 73% → 91%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML NJ +130 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TB: Elo 61.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -138
- NJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +82 Elo | TB 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 15299th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–53 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–52 | 42–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–5 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.