Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Luke GlendeningGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Panthers- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Nikita Kucherov (4)5–1
- P314:19Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (1), Gage Goncalves (3)4–1
- P30:21Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Batted, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Ryan McDonagh (3)3–1
- P213:17Nick Paul Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (2), Ryan McDonagh (2)2–1
- P117:15Brayden Point Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Nikita Kucherov (2)1–1
- P12:43Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Evan Rodrigues (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:43Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Evan Rodrigues (1)TB 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 69% +14FLA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:15Brayden Point Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Nikita Kucherov (2)TB 1 – 1 FLA · TB 29% → 46% +16TB 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P213:17Nick Paul Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (2), Ryan McDonagh (2)TB 2 – 1 FLA · TB 46% → 68% +21TB 46% → 68%+21 pts
- P30:21Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Batted, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Ryan McDonagh (3)TB 3 – 1 FLA · TB 71% → 88% +17TB 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P314:19Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (1), Gage Goncalves (3)TB 4 – 1 FLA · TB >99% → >99% +1TB >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML TB +115 / FLA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +13 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +52 Elo | FLA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–41 | 39–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–10 FLA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Apr 24FLA 2 @ TB 0PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 22FLA 6 @ TB 2PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 15FLA 1 @ TB 5Picked TB 66%Hit
- Mar 3TB 1 @ FLA 2Picked FLA 57%Hit
- Dec 23TB 4 @ FLA 0Picked FLA 58%Miss
- Dec 22FLA 4 @ TB 2Picked FLA 51%Hit
- Apr 29TB 1 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 27FLA 3 @ TB 6PlayoffsPicked TB 54%Hit