Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P312:18JJ Peterka Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (49), Alex Tuch (30)2–2
- P214:47Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (14), Carter Verhaeghe (32)1–2
- P25:00Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (26), Evan Rodrigues (16)1–1
- P119:41Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (31), JJ Peterka (39)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:41Rasmus Dahlin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (31), JJ Peterka (39)BUF 1 – 0 FLA · BUF 43% → 60% +18BUF 43% → 60%+18 pts
- P25:00Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (26), Evan Rodrigues (16)BUF 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 38% → 57% +19FLA 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P214:47Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (14), Carter Verhaeghe (32)BUF 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 76% +20FLA 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P312:18JJ Peterka Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (49), Alex Tuch (30)BUF 2 – 2 FLA · BUF 14% → 47% +33BUF 14% → 47%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML BUF +135 / FLA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- BUF +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −26 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +76 Elo | FLA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.8%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3213–25 | Road vs home | 25–137th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–36 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 46–32 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–5 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.