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New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, MSG

Away

Rangers

38-36-7

5–3

at

Home

Panthers

47-30-4

NYR 39%FLA 61%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored NYR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P316:31Jonny Brodzinski Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (7), Matt Rempe (5)5–3
  • P33:40Vincent Trocheck Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (47)4–3
  • P217:33J.T. Miller Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (41), Chris Kreider (6)3–3
  • P215:55Juuso Parssinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (19), Will Cuylle (24)2–3
  • P213:54Sam Reinhart Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (51), Seth Jones (27)1–3
  • P24:32Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (20), Aleksander Barkov (50)1–2
  • P18:43Matt Rempe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (18), Juuso Parssinen (10)1–1
  • P12:22Sam Reinhart Goal (38) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (26), Evan Rodrigues (17)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:43Matt Rempe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (18), Juuso Parssinen (10)NYR 1 – 1 FLA · NYR 26% → 40% +14
  2. P24:32Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (20), Aleksander Barkov (50)NYR 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 58% → 75% +17
  3. P215:55Juuso Parssinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (19), Will Cuylle (24)NYR 2 – 3 FLA · NYR 9% → 23% +13
  4. P217:33J.T. Miller Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (41), Chris Kreider (6)NYR 3 – 3 FLA · NYR 22% → 43% +21
  5. P33:40Vincent Trocheck Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (47)NYR 4 – 3 FLA · NYR 44% → 71% +27

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 61%

LeanMiss
NYR 39%FLA 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
FLA 61%
ML NYR +145 / FLA -170
Pre-line forecast
FLA 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 65%
Ratings vs. market
+4.4 pts
FLA: Elo 65.1%, market 60.7%
Fair odds
FLA -154
NYR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRFLAWhy
Team rating15041555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−7+15NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +108 EloFLA 65.1%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 65.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 65.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 60.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatFLA
13th of 323.1Goals scored3.112th of 32
20th of 323.1Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
16th of 32−0.1Margin+0.49th of 32
21st of 3249.0%Shot share54.8%2nd of 32
14th of 3290.1%Save percentage90.7%8th of 32
22nd of 324–6Last 105–512th of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home26–137th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRFLA
Puck line31–4937–43
Last 103–74–6
Favorite19–3527–40
Underdog12–1410–3
Overs–unders39–4135–45
Overs–unders, last 108–22–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 3–8 FLA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.