Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:22Darren Raddysh Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (84), Victor Hedman (51)1–5
- P25:36Brad Marchand Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (33), Matt Kiersted (1)1–4
- P24:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (24), Brayden Point (40)0–4
- P118:09Jake Guentzel Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (32)0–3
- P115:25Conor Geekie Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (39), Victor Hedman (50)0–2
- P11:32Brayden Point Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (23), J.J. Moser (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32Brayden Point Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (23), J.J. Moser (12)FLA 0 – 1 TB · TB 66% → 78% +12TB 66% → 78%+12 pts
- P115:25Conor Geekie Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (39), Victor Hedman (50)FLA 0 – 2 TB · TB 78% → 89% +10TB 78% → 89%+10 pts
- P118:09Jake Guentzel Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (32)FLA 0 – 3 TB · TB 89% → 95% +6TB 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P24:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (24), Brayden Point (40)FLA 0 – 4 TB · TB 96% → 99% +3TB 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P25:36Brad Marchand Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (33), Matt Kiersted (1)FLA 1 – 4 TB · FLA 1% → 4% +3FLA 1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML FLA +185 / TB -225
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 64.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -197
- FLA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −23 | +10 | FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +105 Elo | TB 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.8% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–20 | Road vs home | 28–125th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–44 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 8–3 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 3TB 1 @ FLA 2Picked FLA 57%Hit
- Dec 23TB 4 @ FLA 0Picked FLA 58%Miss
- Dec 22FLA 4 @ TB 2Picked FLA 51%Hit
- Apr 29TB 1 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 27FLA 3 @ TB 6PlayoffsPicked TB 54%Hit
- Apr 25FLA 5 @ TB 3PlayoffsPicked TB 54%Miss
- Apr 23TB 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 21TB 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit