Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Sam LaffertyGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists1
- Connor CliftonPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Gage GoncalvesAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:23Sam Lafferty Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (51)4–7
- P313:12Jake Guentzel Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (83), Brandon Hagel (55)3–7
- P38:39Alex Tuch Goal (35) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (50), JJ Peterka (40)3–6
- P32:39Nikita Kucherov Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: none2–6
- P216:45Emil Lilleberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (6), Gage Goncalves (12)2–5
- P214:21Conor Geekie Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (11), Nick Paul (19)2–4
- P26:34Nikita Kucherov Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (49), Yanni Gourde (22)2–3
- P23:02Ryan McDonagh Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (54), Anthony Cirelli (31)2–2
- P119:52Connor Clifton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (18), Jack Quinn (23)2–1
- P119:37Jiri Kulich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (28)1–1
- P116:35Jake Guentzel Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (53), Anthony Cirelli (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:35Jake Guentzel Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (53), Anthony Cirelli (30)BUF 0 – 1 TB · TB 67% → 81% +14TB 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P119:37Jiri Kulich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (28)BUF 1 – 1 TB · BUF 19% → 34% +14BUF 19% → 34%+14 pts
- P119:52Connor Clifton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (18), Jack Quinn (23)BUF 2 – 1 TB · BUF 34% → 51% +17BUF 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P23:02Ryan McDonagh Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (54), Anthony Cirelli (31)BUF 2 – 2 TB · TB 47% → 66% +18TB 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P26:34Nikita Kucherov Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (49), Yanni Gourde (22)BUF 2 – 3 TB · TB 65% → 81% +16TB 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 69%
- ML BUF +215 / TB -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TB: Elo 64.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -228
- BUF +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −23 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +103 Elo | TB 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 25th of 3213–26 | Road vs home | 27–126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–36 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 31–28 |
| Underdog | 36–20 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 46–33 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.