Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning
Rangers- Will CuylleAssists1
- K'Andre MillerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Chris Kreider (8)0–4
- P312:50Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (20)0–3
- P34:02Chris Kreider Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (42), Will Cuylle (25)0–2
- P21:02Vincent Trocheck Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (48)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:02Vincent Trocheck Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (48)TB 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 51% → 68% +17NYR 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P34:02Chris Kreider Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (42), Will Cuylle (25)TB 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 76% → 92% +16NYR 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P312:50Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (20)TB 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 98% → >99% +2NYR 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P316:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Chris Kreider (8)TB 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML TB -105 / NYR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | −4 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +3 Elo | NYR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–22 | Road vs home | 18–2226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–38 | 32–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–28 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.