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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 1-0

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

6–2

at

Home

Lightning

47-27-8

FLA 47%TB 53%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored FLA favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Lightning

Scoring summary

  • P35:09Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (1), Aleksander Barkov (2)6–2
  • P213:04Brayden Point Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (1), Gage Goncalves (1)5–2
  • P29:44Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–1
  • P24:55Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Aleksander Barkov (1)4–1
  • P24:41Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Sam Bennett (1)3–1
  • P119:15Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Carter Verhaeghe (1)2–1
  • P112:21Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Victor Hedman (1)1–1
  • P13:44Sam Bennett Goal (1) Batted, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:44Sam Bennett Goal (1) Batted, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 47% → 62% +15
  2. P112:21Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (1), Victor Hedman (1)FLA 1 – 1 TB · TB 37% → 53% +16
  3. P119:15Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (1), Carter Verhaeghe (1)FLA 2 – 1 TB · FLA 47% → 65% +17
  4. P24:41Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Sam Bennett (1)FLA 3 – 1 TB · FLA 66% → 81% +15
  5. P24:55Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Aleksander Barkov (1)FLA 4 – 1 TB · FLA 81% → 91% +10

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Lightning 53%

Toss-upMiss
FLA 47%TB 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
TB 53%
ML FLA +105 / TB -125
Pre-line forecast
TB 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 56%
Ratings vs. market
+2.9 pts
TB: Elo 56.1%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
TB -114
FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.7 – 2.8 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATBWhy
Team rating15461555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+14+13FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +43 EloTB 56.1%
Market-implied ratingsTB 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 56.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTB
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.61st of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.92nd of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share50.3%15th of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage91.3%2nd of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home29–124th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATB
Puck line37–4543–39
Last 104–65–5
Favorite27–4133–29
Underdog10–410–10
Overs–unders37–4538–44
Overs–unders, last 103–76–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 8–4 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.