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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 2-0

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

2–0

at

Home

Lightning

47-27-8

FLA 47%TB 53%

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Benchmark International Arena · TBS, truTV, HBO Max, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored FLA favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Lightning

    Scoring summary

    • P319:56Sam Bennett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (1)2–0
    • P14:15Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (2), Aleksander Barkov (3)1–0

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P14:15Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (2), Aleksander Barkov (3)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 47% → 62% +15
    2. P319:56Sam Bennett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (1)FLA 2 – 0 TB · FLA 100% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Lightning 53%

    Toss-upMiss
    FLA 47%TB 53%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    TB 53%
    ML FLA +105 / TB -125
    Pre-line forecast
    TB 55%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TB 54%
    Ratings vs. market
    +0.7 pts
    TB: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
    Fair odds
    TB -114
    FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    FLA 2.7 – 2.8 TB
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorFLATBWhy
    Team rating15521549Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+13+9FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsTB +28 EloTB 54.0%
    Market-implied ratingsTB 54.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastTB 54.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTB 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
    FLAStatTB
    14th of 323.1Goals scored3.61st of 32
    6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
    10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.92nd of 32
    2nd of 3254.6%Shot share50.3%15th of 32
    10th of 3290.5%Save percentage91.3%2nd of 32
    25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
    14th of 3219–21Road vs home29–124th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PanthersLightning
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonFLATB
    Puck line38–4543–40
    Last 105–54–6
    Favorite27–4133–30
    Underdog11–410–10
    Overs–unders38–4539–44
    Overs–unders, last 103–76–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    FLA 9–4 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.