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Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 3-1

Away

Lightning

47-27-8

2–4

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

TB 43%FLA 57%

You didn't pick this one.

Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN, FanDuel SN Sun, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored TB favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%TB

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Lightning
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P318:20Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4)2–4
  • P316:24Seth Jones Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (1), Dmitry Kulikov (2)2–3
  • P316:13Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3)2–2
  • P212:32Erik Cernak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3)2–1
  • P212:21Mitchell Chaffee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (1), Nick Perbix (1)1–1
  • P29:06Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Eetu Luostarinen (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P29:06Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Eetu Luostarinen (1)TB 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 74% +19
  2. P212:21Mitchell Chaffee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (1), Nick Perbix (1)TB 1 – 1 FLA · TB 25% → 45% +20
  3. P212:32Erik Cernak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3)TB 2 – 1 FLA · TB 45% → 66% +21
  4. P316:13Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3)TB 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 8% → 52% +44
  5. P316:24Seth Jones Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (1), Dmitry Kulikov (2)TB 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 94% +42

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 57%

LeanHit
TB 43%FLA 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 57%
ML TB +125 / FLA -145
Pre-line forecast
FLA 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 55%
Ratings vs. market
−2.0 pts
FLA: Elo 55.2%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
FLA -133
TB +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TB 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBFLAWhy
Team rating15511550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+9+10TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +36 EloFLA 55.2%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 55.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 55.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatFLA
1st of 323.6Goals scored3.114th of 32
3rd of 322.7Goals allowed2.76th of 32
2nd of 32+0.9Margin+0.410th of 32
15th of 3250.3%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
2nd of 3291.3%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
14th of 325–5Last 103–725th of 32
15th of 3218–23Road vs home26–149th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LightningPanthers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBFLA
Puck line44–4139–46
Last 104–65–5
Favorite33–3127–42
Underdog11–1012–4
Overs–unders40–4539–46
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 5–10 FLA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.