Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Brady TkachukAssists3
- Shane PintoPoints3
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Brayden PointPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (2), Victor Hedman (2)5–4
- P319:12Claude Giroux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (1), Artem Zub (2)5–3
- P318:13Shane Pinto Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (2)4–3
- P215:09Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (1), Brady Tkachuk (3)3–3
- P20:42Artem Zub Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Tim Stützle (1)2–3
- P114:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (1), Brayden Point (2)1–3
- P110:18Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (1), Jake Sanderson (1)1–2
- P17:00Brayden Point Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Darren Raddysh (1)0–2
- P15:35Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Brayden Point (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (1), Brayden Point (1)OTT 0 – 1 TB · TB 60% → 74% +14TB 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P114:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (1), Brayden Point (2)OTT 1 – 3 TB · TB 74% → 86% +12TB 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P20:42Artem Zub Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Tim Stützle (1)OTT 2 – 3 TB · OTT 13% → 25% +12OTT 13% → 25%+12 pts
- P215:09Shane Pinto Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (1), Brady Tkachuk (3)OTT 3 – 3 TB · OTT 23% → 43% +20OTT 23% → 43%+20 pts
- P318:13Shane Pinto Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (2)OTT 4 – 3 TB · OTT 48% → 98% +50OTT 48% → 98%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML OTT +145 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 58.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- OTT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +62 Elo | TB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OTT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–51 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–38 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 42–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–3 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.