Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:09Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (1)2–3
- P314:47Adam Gaudette Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Tim Stützle (1)2–2
- P215:41Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Thomas Chabot (1)1–2
- P18:20John Tavares Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (3), Auston Matthews (3)0–2
- P13:43Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (2), John Tavares (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:43Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (2), John Tavares (2)OTT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 59% → 73% +14TOR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P18:20John Tavares Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (3), Auston Matthews (3)OTT 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 73% → 84% +11TOR 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P215:41Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Thomas Chabot (1)OTT 1 – 2 TOR · OTT 10% → 24% +14OTT 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P314:47Adam Gaudette Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Tim Stützle (1)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · OTT 10% → 47% +38OTT 10% → 47%+38 pts
- OT3:09Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (1)OTT 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 52% → 98% +47TOR 52% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML OTT +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- OTT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +15 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +102 Elo | TOR 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–48 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–35 | 25–35 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–43 | 42–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–2 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.