Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:13Matthew Knies Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Mitch Marner (2)2–6
- P34:45Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Bobby McMann (1)2–5
- P34:00Ridly Greig Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Shane Pinto (1)2–4
- P27:19William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (1)1–4
- P24:07John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1), Mitch Marner (1)1–3
- P116:18Drake Batherson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), David Perron (1)1–2
- P112:18Mitch Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1)0–2
- P17:09Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Calle Jarnkrok (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:09Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Calle Jarnkrok (1)OTT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 60% → 74% +14TOR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P112:18Mitch Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1)OTT 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 74% → 86% +11TOR 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P116:18Drake Batherson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), David Perron (1)OTT 1 – 2 TOR · OTT 14% → 26% +12OTT 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P24:07John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1), Mitch Marner (1)OTT 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 75% → 88% +12TOR 75% → 88%+12 pts
- P27:19William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (1)OTT 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 88% → 95% +7TOR 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML OTT +145 / TOR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- OTT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +16 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +93 Elo | TOR 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–47 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–35 | 24–35 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.