Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Justin HollGoals1
- Justin HollAssists1
- Justin HollPoints2
Maple Leafs- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:56Scott Laughton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Mermis (1), Matthew Knies (29)3–4
- P319:58Chris Tanev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (75), Pontus Holmberg (12)3–3
- P33:43Philippe Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (11), Calle Jarnkrok (6)3–2
- P25:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (38), Patrick Kane (38)3–1
- P22:16Justin Holl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (18), Vladimir Tarasenko (22)2–1
- P119:19Austin Watson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Justin Holl (6)1–1
- P117:53Auston Matthews Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (28), Mitch Marner (74)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:16Justin Holl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (18), Vladimir Tarasenko (22)DET 2 – 1 TOR · DET 40% → 58% +18DET 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P25:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (38), Patrick Kane (38)DET 3 – 1 TOR · DET 60% → 77% +17DET 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P33:43Philippe Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (11), Calle Jarnkrok (6)DET 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 11% → 30% +19TOR 11% → 30%+19 pts
- P319:58Chris Tanev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (75), Pontus Holmberg (12)DET 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 0% → 50% +50TOR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:56Scott Laughton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Mermis (1), Matthew Knies (29)DET 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 53% → 93% +40TOR 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML DET +155 / TOR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −12 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +106 Elo | TOR 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 26–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–34 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.