Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints1
SabresScoring summary
- P318:43Nicholas Robertson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (11), Bobby McMann (14)4–0
- P318:08Auston Matthews Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P315:39Mitch Marner Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (45), Matthew Knies (27)2–0
- P214:15Steven Lorentz Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (18), Calle Jarnkrok (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:15Steven Lorentz Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (18), Calle Jarnkrok (5)TOR 1 – 0 BUF · TOR 55% → 75% +20TOR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P315:39Mitch Marner Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (45), Matthew Knies (27)TOR 2 – 0 BUF · TOR 92% → >99% +8TOR 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P318:08Auston Matthews Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 0 BUF · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:43Nicholas Robertson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (11), Bobby McMann (14)TOR 4 – 0 BUF · TOR >99% → 100% +0TOR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / BUF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- BUF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +47 Elo | TOR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3224–16 | Road vs home | 22–1614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–41 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 47–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.