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Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalTOR leads series 3-2

Away

Senators

45-30-7

4–0

at

Home

Maple Leafs

52-26-4

OTT 39%TOR 61%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored OTT favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%OTT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Senators
Maple Leafs

    Scoring summary

    • P319:13Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (3)4–0
    • P317:09Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Brady Tkachuk (3)3–0
    • P38:24Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (2)2–0
    • P23:46Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Tim Stützle (2)1–0

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P23:46Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Tim Stützle (2)OTT 1 – 0 TOR · OTT 42% → 60% +19
    2. P38:24Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (2)OTT 2 – 0 TOR · OTT 76% → 94% +18
    3. P317:09Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Brady Tkachuk (3)OTT 3 – 0 TOR · OTT >99% → >99% +0
    4. P319:13Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (3)OTT 4 – 0 TOR · OTT 100% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Maple Leafs 61%

    LeanMiss
    OTT 39%TOR 61%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    TOR 61%
    ML OTT +145 / TOR -170
    Pre-line forecast
    TOR 59%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TOR 64%
    Ratings vs. market
    +3.2 pts
    TOR: Elo 63.9%, market 60.7%
    Fair odds
    TOR -154
    OTT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    OTT 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorOTTTORWhy
    Team rating15061560Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies0+10OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsTOR +99 EloTOR 63.9%
    Market-implied ratingsTOR 57.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastTOR 58.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTOR 60.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
    OTTStatTOR
    18th of 323.0Goals scored3.39th of 32
    12th of 322.9Goals allowed2.88th of 32
    14th of 32+0.1Margin+0.58th of 32
    12th of 3250.6%Shot share48.9%23rd of 32
    7th of 3290.7%Save percentage91.2%3rd of 32
    9th of 326–4Last 109–11st of 32
    15th of 3218–23Road vs home27–147th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    SenatorsMaple Leafs
    145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonOTTTOR
    Puck line36–5043–43
    Last 104–66–4
    Favorite14–3725–36
    Underdog22–1318–7
    Overs–unders41–4543–43
    Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    OTT 7–4 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.