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Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast

FinalTOR wins series 4-2

Away

Maple Leafs

52-26-4

4–2

at

Home

Senators

45-30-7

TOR 49%OTT 51%

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Canadian Tire Centre · TBS, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.

OTT favored TOR favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTT50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs
Senators

Scoring summary

  • P319:41William Nylander Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (2)4–2
  • P314:21Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (1), Pontus Holmberg (1)3–2
  • P312:40David Perron Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (3)2–2
  • P27:28Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Claude Giroux (4)2–1
  • P20:43William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (1)2–0
  • P118:50Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (7), William Nylander (6)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P118:50Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (7), William Nylander (6)TOR 1 – 0 OTT · TOR 49% → 66% +17
  2. P20:43William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (1)TOR 2 – 0 OTT · TOR 67% → 81% +14
  3. P27:28Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Claude Giroux (4)TOR 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 17% → 32% +15
  4. P312:40David Perron Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (3)TOR 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 15% → 50% +35
  5. P314:21Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (1), Pontus Holmberg (1)TOR 3 – 2 OTT · TOR 50% → 88% +38

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Senators 51%

Toss-upMiss
TOR 49%OTT 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
OTT 51%
ML TOR -105 / OTT -115
Pre-line forecast
OTT 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OTT 49%
Ratings vs. market
−2.5 pts
OTT: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
OTT -104
TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTOROTTWhy
Team rating15531513Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7+2TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +10 EloTOR 51.5%
Market-implied ratingsOTT 50.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOTT 50.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOTT 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatOTT
9th of 323.3Goals scored3.018th of 32
8th of 322.8Goals allowed2.912th of 32
8th of 32+0.5Margin+0.114th of 32
23rd of 3248.9%Shot share50.6%12th of 32
3rd of 3291.2%Save percentage90.7%7th of 32
1st of 329–1Last 106–49th of 32
2nd of 3225–16Road vs home27–147th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsSenators
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTOROTT
Puck line43–4437–50
Last 106–44–6
Favorite25–3714–37
Underdog18–723–13
Overs–unders43–4441–46
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 4–8 OTT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.