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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalFLA wins series 4-1

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

6–3

at

Home

Lightning

47-27-8

FLA 51%TB 49%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN2, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored FLA favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Lightning

Scoring summary

  • P315:36Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
  • P313:02Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (4), Anton Lundell (3)5–3
  • P215:13Sam Bennett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Eetu Luostarinen (4)4–3
  • P29:57Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (3)3–3
  • P20:52Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (1), Eetu Luostarinen (3)3–2
  • P112:16Nick Paul Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (1)2–2
  • P110:06Anton Lundell Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Brad Marchand (3), Eetu Luostarinen (2)2–1
  • P15:21Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (2), Sam Reinhart (4)1–1
  • P12:33Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (1), Victor Hedman (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P110:06Anton Lundell Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Brad Marchand (3), Eetu Luostarinen (2)FLA 2 – 1 TB · FLA 51% → 66% +15
  2. P112:16Nick Paul Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (1)FLA 2 – 2 TB · TB 33% → 49% +16
  3. P20:52Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (1), Eetu Luostarinen (3)FLA 3 – 2 TB · FLA 51% → 68% +17
  4. P29:57Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (3)FLA 3 – 3 TB · TB 30% → 49% +20
  5. P215:13Sam Bennett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Eetu Luostarinen (4)FLA 4 – 3 TB · FLA 51% → 72% +21

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 51%

Toss-upHit
FLA 51%TB 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
FLA 51%
ML FLA -115 / TB -105
Pre-line forecast
FLA 46%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 46%
Ratings vs. market
−4.8 pts
FLA: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
FLA -104
TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.8 – 2.7 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATBWhy
Team rating15531547Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+10+7FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +26 EloTB 53.7%
Market-implied ratingsTB 53.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 53.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTB
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.61st of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.92nd of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share50.3%15th of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage91.3%2nd of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home29–124th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATB
Puck line40–4644–42
Last 106–44–6
Favorite28–4233–31
Underdog12–411–11
Overs–unders40–4641–45
Overs–unders, last 105–58–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 11–5 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.