New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Hurricanes- K'Andre MillerGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- K'Andre MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:47Eric Robinson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)3–6
- P319:05Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P317:17Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)3–4
- P311:38Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (1), Luke Hughes (2)3–3
- P310:21K'Andre Miller Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Jackson Blake (1)2–3
- P213:54Cody Glass Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (1)2–2
- P29:23K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1), Jordan Martinook (1)1–2
- P28:15Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jesper Bratt (1), Jack Hughes (1)1–1
- P14:06Taylor Hall Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (1), Alexander Nikishin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:23K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (1), Jordan Martinook (1)NJ 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 58% → 76% +18CAR 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P213:54Cody Glass Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (1)NJ 2 – 2 CAR · NJ 23% → 43% +20NJ 23% → 43%+20 pts
- P310:21K'Andre Miller Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (1), Jackson Blake (1)NJ 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 54% → 85% +30CAR 54% → 85%+30 pts
- P311:38Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (1), Luke Hughes (2)NJ 3 – 3 CAR · NJ 14% → 46% +32NJ 14% → 46%+32 pts
- P317:17Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (2), Shayne Gostisbehere (2)NJ 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → 96% +44CAR 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML NJ +145 / CAR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- NJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +82 Elo | CAR 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149924th of 32 |
| 21st of 321489 | Elo rating | 15366th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–53 | 44–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 40–46 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–52 | 43–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–9 CAR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Apr 29NJ 4 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 5 @ NJ 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 63%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 2 @ NJ 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 22NJ 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 20NJ 1 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 28NJ 2 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 27CAR 2 @ NJ 4Picked NJ 55%Hit
- Nov 21CAR 2 @ NJ 4Picked NJ 51%Hit