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Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 3-1

Away

Hurricanes

47-30-5

3–0

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

CAR 39%FLA 61%

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Amerant Bank Arena · TNT, HBO Max, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored CAR favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Panthers

    Scoring summary

    • P318:15Jordan Staal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4)3–0
    • P317:49Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3), Seth Jarvis (9)2–0
    • P210:45Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (1)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P210:45Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (1)CAR 1 – 0 FLA · CAR 42% → 63% +21
    2. P317:49Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3), Seth Jarvis (9)CAR 2 – 0 FLA · CAR 97% → >99% +3
    3. P318:15Jordan Staal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4)CAR 3 – 0 FLA · CAR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Panthers 61%

    LeanMiss
    CAR 39%FLA 61%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    FLA 61%
    ML CAR +150 / FLA -175
    Pre-line forecast
    FLA 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    FLA 61%
    Ratings vs. market
    −0.6 pts
    FLA: Elo 60.8%, market 61.4%
    Fair odds
    FLA -159
    CAR +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CAR 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCARFLAWhy
    Team rating15461581Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+1+7CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsFLA +76 EloFLA 60.8%
    Market-implied ratingsFLA 51.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastFLA 53.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastFLA 61.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
    CARStatFLA
    10th of 323.2Goals scored3.114th of 32
    10th of 322.8Goals allowed2.76th of 32
    9th of 32+0.4Margin+0.410th of 32
    1st of 3256.0%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
    26th of 3289.3%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
    25th of 323–7Last 103–725th of 32
    22nd of 3216–25Road vs home26–149th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    HurricanesPanthers
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCARFLA
    Puck line43–5247–50
    Last 104–66–4
    Favorite40–4633–46
    Underdog3–614–4
    Overs–unders42–5348–49
    Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CAR 3–6 FLA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.