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Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalFLA wins series 4-3

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

6–1

at

Home

Maple Leafs

52-26-4

FLA 57%TOR 43%

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Scotiabank Arena · TNT, HBO Max, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P316:57Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (9)6–1
  • P39:24Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (7)5–1
  • P32:54Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (9)4–1
  • P32:07Max Domi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (3)3–1
  • P29:39Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1), Seth Jones (3)3–0
  • P27:18Anton Lundell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8), Brad Marchand (8)2–0
  • P23:15Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (6)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P23:15Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (6)FLA 1 – 0 TOR · FLA 56% → 73% +17
  2. P27:18Anton Lundell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8), Brad Marchand (8)FLA 2 – 0 TOR · FLA 73% → 87% +13
  3. P29:39Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1), Seth Jones (3)FLA 3 – 0 TOR · FLA 88% → 95% +8
  4. P32:07Max Domi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (3)FLA 3 – 1 TOR · TOR 2% → 8% +6
  5. P32:54Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (9)FLA 4 – 1 TOR · FLA 93% → 98% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 57%

LeanHit
FLA 57%TOR 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 57%
ML FLA -145 / TOR +125
Pre-line forecast
FLA 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 48%
Ratings vs. market
−9.0 pts
FLA: Elo 48.1%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
FLA -133
TOR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.0 – 2.5 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATORWhy
Team rating15601555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5−11FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +13 EloTOR 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 55.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 54.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTOR
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.39th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.88th of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.58th of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share48.9%23rd of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage91.2%3rd of 32
25th of 323–7Last 109–11st of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home27–147th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersMaple Leafs
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATOR
Puck line43–5048–46
Last 105–57–3
Favorite31–4625–37
Underdog12–423–9
Overs–unders45–4848–46
Overs–unders, last 107–36–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 8–6 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.