Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Maple Leafs- Max PaciorettyGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Max PaciorettyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:50Mitch Marner Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (4), Auston Matthews (6)3–4
- P35:33Anton Lundell Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (1), Eetu Luostarinen (6)3–3
- P217:09Max Domi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Morgan Rielly (3)2–3
- P24:18William Nylander Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Max Pacioretty (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)2–2
- P20:15Brad Marchand Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (5), Eetu Luostarinen (5)2–1
- P118:19Max Pacioretty Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (2), Max Domi (2)1–1
- P110:58Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:15Brad Marchand Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (5), Eetu Luostarinen (5)FLA 2 – 1 TOR · FLA 57% → 74% +16FLA 57% → 74%+16 pts
- P24:18William Nylander Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Max Pacioretty (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)FLA 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 26% → 43% +17TOR 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P217:09Max Domi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Morgan Rielly (3)FLA 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 45% → 68% +23TOR 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P35:33Anton Lundell Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (1), Eetu Luostarinen (6)FLA 3 – 3 TOR · FLA 26% → 54% +28FLA 26% → 54%+28 pts
- P35:50Mitch Marner Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (4), Auston Matthews (6)FLA 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 46% → 74% +28TOR 46% → 74%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML FLA -155 / TOR +135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 48.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- TOR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −19 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–43 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 20–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 45–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.