Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Max PaciorettyAssists2
- Chris TanevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:05Sam Bennett Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3)4–5
- P314:00Matthew Knies Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (8), Chris Tanev (2)3–5
- P34:30Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1), Brad Marchand (6)3–4
- P31:39Eetu Luostarinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Anton Lundell (4), Brad Marchand (5)2–4
- P27:50Chris Tanev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (3), Matthew Knies (1)1–4
- P117:16Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (7)1–3
- P116:57Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Carter Verhaeghe (2)1–2
- P112:51William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1), Max Pacioretty (3)0–2
- P10:33William Nylander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (2), Jake McCabe (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33William Nylander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (2), Jake McCabe (2)FLA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 47% → 61% +14TOR 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P112:51William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1), Max Pacioretty (3)FLA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 63% → 77% +14TOR 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P116:57Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (3), Carter Verhaeghe (2)FLA 1 – 2 TOR · FLA 21% → 36% +14FLA 21% → 36%+14 pts
- P117:16Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (7)FLA 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 64% → 79% +15TOR 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P34:30Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1), Brad Marchand (6)FLA 3 – 4 TOR · FLA 8% → 25% +17FLA 8% → 25%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML FLA -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 45.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +32 Elo | TOR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–46 | 44–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–42 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–46 | 44–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–3 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.