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Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Maple Leafs

52-26-4

0–2

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

TOR 36%FLA 64%

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Amerant Bank Arena · TBS, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored TOR favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs

    Scoring summary

    • P312:09Sam Bennett Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3)0–2
    • P115:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Aleksander Barkov (5)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P115:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Aleksander Barkov (5)TOR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 62% → 77% +15
    2. P312:09Sam Bennett Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3)TOR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 87% → 98% +11

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Panthers 64%

    SolidHit
    TOR 36%FLA 64%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    FLA 64%
    ML TOR +170 / FLA -200
    Pre-line forecast
    FLA 65%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    FLA 57%
    Ratings vs. market
    −6.9 pts
    FLA: Elo 57.4%, market 64.3%
    Fair odds
    FLA -180
    TOR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    TOR 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorTORFLAWhy
    Team rating15591556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−17+3TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsFLA +52 EloFLA 57.4%
    Market-implied ratingsFLA 66.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastFLA 64.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastFLA 64.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
    TORStatFLA
    9th of 323.3Goals scored3.114th of 32
    8th of 322.8Goals allowed2.76th of 32
    8th of 32+0.5Margin+0.410th of 32
    23rd of 3248.9%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
    3rd of 3291.2%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
    1st of 329–1Last 103–725th of 32
    2nd of 3225–16Road vs home26–149th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    Maple LeafsPanthers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonTORFLA
    Puck line47–4441–49
    Last 107–34–6
    Favorite25–3729–45
    Underdog22–712–4
    Overs–unders47–4444–46
    Overs–unders, last 107–39–1

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    TOR 5–6 FLA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.