Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT15:27Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (3), Carter Verhaeghe (4)4–5
- P310:56Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), Matthew Knies (2)4–4
- P215:07Jonah Gadjovich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Nosek (1), Nate Schmidt (2)3–4
- P25:17Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Matthew Tkachuk (4)3–3
- P24:13Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Poke, assists: Evan Rodrigues (3), Aaron Ekblad (2)3–2
- P22:52John Tavares Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (10), William Nylander (9)3–1
- P17:38Aleksander Barkov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (5), Evan Rodrigues (2)2–1
- P15:57John Tavares Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Max Pacioretty (5), William Nylander (8)2–0
- P10:23Matthew Knies Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (7), Mitch Marner (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:13Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Poke, assists: Evan Rodrigues (3), Aaron Ekblad (2)TOR 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 27% → 45% +17FLA 27% → 45%+17 pts
- P25:17Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Matthew Tkachuk (4)TOR 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 44% → 63% +19FLA 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P215:07Jonah Gadjovich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Nosek (1), Nate Schmidt (2)TOR 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 61% → 80% +19FLA 61% → 80%+19 pts
- P310:56Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), Matthew Knies (2)TOR 4 – 4 FLA · TOR 13% → 43% +30TOR 13% → 43%+30 pts
- OT15:27Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (3), Carter Verhaeghe (4)TOR 4 – 5 FLA · FLA 55% → 100% +45FLA 55% → 100%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 67%
- ML TOR +190 / FLA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -201
- TOR +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +49 Elo | FLA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–16 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–44 | 41–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 46–44 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–5 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- May 7FLA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 59%Miss
- May 5FLA 4 @ TOR 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 53%Miss
- Apr 8TOR 1 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 60%Hit
- Apr 2FLA 2 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 13FLA 3 @ TOR 2Picked FLA 55%Hit
- Nov 27TOR 1 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 59%Hit
- Apr 16TOR 2 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 1FLA 4 @ TOR 6Picked TOR 55%Hit